European Road Freight: The Last 12 Months (Oct 2025 – Sep 2026)
The year in one minute
European road freight lived through two different markets in twelve months. Until February 2026 it was a soft, slowly recovering market with stable diesel. Then the war in Iran began on 28 February 2026 and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. EU diesel went from about €1.54 per litre to €2.00 within five weeks. By late September 2026 it stood at €2.14, 42.5% above the same week a year earlier (European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin).
Freight rates followed costs, not demand. Contract rates rose from 136.9 to 148.0 index points between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, while cross-border volumes between major EU economies fell 1.6% (Ti, Upply and IRU benchmark). Consolidation accelerated, insolvencies stayed high, and new rules arrived: the Dutch truck toll, tachographs for vans, and a one-year delay to ETS2.
Key moments of the year
The year splits into four phases, set out in order so the video can follow them as chapters.
When What happened Source
Q4 2025 Soft peak season: spot rates flat (+0.3 pts QoQ), contract rates up as shippers locked in pricing ahead of an expected 2026 recovery Ti/Upply/IRU Q4 2025
Jan–Feb 2026 Annual toll increases; Poland's tolls for a Euro VI artic rose 33% in February, 40% year on year Ti/Upply/IRU Q1 2026
28 Feb 2026 War in Iran begins; Strait of Hormuz effectively closed IRU via Trans.info
March 2026 French CNR measures +31% on bulk professional diesel since the war began, adding 7.6% to total long-haul truck cost vs February CNR, 20 Mar 2026
April 2026 Diesel peaks (EU weekly avg €2.03); Brent touches USD 119; Commission adopts METSAF state-aid framework on 29 April IRU key figures, European Commission
May–June 2026 Crude eases, diesel falls to €1.69 by end of June; national fuel-tax relief expires in Germany and Spain on 30 June IRU via Trans.info
1 July 2026 Dutch truck toll goes live; smart tachographs become mandatory for 2.5–3.5 t vans in international transport Vrachtwagenheffing, ETF
July–Sept 2026 Renewed Middle East tension; IRU's weighted EU diesel average passed €2 on 22 July; the Oil Bulletin average reached €2.14 by 21 September EC Oil Bulletin via fuel-prices.eu
